Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Bitcoin's daily flips
After bullish flips the median price was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 40 of 40 | +0.9% | −3.0% to +4.0% (92%) | −1.9% to +2.7% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 40 of 40 | +1.3% | −7.6% to +8.6% (92%) | −4.1% to +7.6% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 39 of 40 | −2.9% | −14.3% to +10.9% (95%) | −10.4% to +19.4% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 39 of 39 | +1.8% | −0.4% to +4.6% (95%) | −1.8% to +3.0% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 39 of 39 | +1.2% | −6.5% to +6.3% (95%) | −3.8% to +8.5% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 39 of 39 | −3.3% | −16.6% to +14.5% (95%) | −10.4% to +19.4% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 11 Oct 2017, for comparison | 7 | 3,272 days | +0.5% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 3,249 days | +1.6% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 3,189 days | +2.6% | – | – | – | |
| All tracked coins on the same dates as the bullish flips | 7 | 36 flips on 36 days | −2.4% | −6.2% to +0.3% (95%) | 41% up | – |
| 30 | 36 flips on 36 days | 0.0% | −16.1% to +8.9% (95%) | 49% up | – | |
| 90 | 35 flips on 35 days | −14.3% | −22.3% to +2.2% (95%) | 41% up | – | |
| All tracked coins on the same dates as the bearish flips | 7 | 35 flips on 35 days | +1.3% | −0.2% to +4.3% (95%) | 57% up | – |
| 30 | 35 flips on 35 days | −5.9% | −12.7% to +0.7% (95%) | 41% up | – | |
| 90 | 35 flips on 35 days | −18.2% | −29.2% to +0.7% (95%) | 37% up | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
Same dates: for each flip, the median result of all tracked coins over the same days, and the share of them that ended up. These are medians and shares; by averages the picture can differ. Coins move together, so flips on the same days count as fewer independent periods than flips.
Their range is where the median lands 95 times in 100 when whole calendar months of flips are drawn again at random. With fewer than 30 independent periods or 30 months behind a row, its median and range say too few independent periods to compare.
The latest flip is too recent to count in the 90 day column.
Prices are daily closes on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
What we tested
We tested 56 different settings and filters for the trend line, on daily and weekly candles (100 rule-and-timeframe combinations), on 129 coins that have at least three years of history (128 excluding Bitcoin for the setting grid). Hourly (4h) and monthly lines and the Bitcoin-priced lines were not tested. Out of sample means January 2022 to October 2026: one mostly falling stretch, with survivors only.
For altcoins on daily candles, after 2022, settings from factor 2 to 3 gave similar results (30-day gap between what followed bullish and bearish changes 2.4 to 5.0 points, against 3.4 for the published setting; none of the 90-day differences was clear). Before 2022 the published setting was at the low end of that range, and a factor 1.5 line was clearly worse in both periods. For Bitcoin, one series with 45 daily flips since 2022, the evidence is too thin to defend or replace its setting. That the published setting sat in a flat area does not show it was chosen without hindsight.
Rules that wait for extra closes, demand a margin beyond the line, or use a slower factor changed the label less often or later. They did not clearly raise how well it separated what followed after 2022, and the margin rules fell further from the peak before turning bearish. Rules that go neutral when the trend looks weak (ADX, Choppiness, efficiency ratio) made the label change more often, not less (daily: 15 to 86 changes per coin-year against 14), and the flips they let through were followed by much the same results as the rest.
For altcoins on weekly candles the published setting sits next to a cliff: a wider band changed state later and separated what followed less (90-day gap down 12 to 26 points; the calendar-based intervals are wide, 19 quarters). Bitcoin's weekly line has only 4 flips since 2022 and shows no such pattern.
Coins change state together: on 69% of coin-days a coin's daily state matched Bitcoin's (about 50% would be expected by chance; 63% to 65% in 2025 and 2026, 80% in 2022). After 2022 the 30-day median gap between bullish and bearish changes was +3.3 points, but 'about zero' (-0.2, range -0.7 to +0.2) once each change is compared with all coins on the same dates. That holds for medians; by averages the same-date gap is +2.4 points [0.2, 5.2], driven by a few large rises. The calendar-based range of the raw gap includes zero.
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
The study's notes and tables are kept with the project's research files.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 40 | 0 of 40 |
| After bearish flips | 39 | 0 of 39 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Bitcoin's daily line has flipped 8.8 times a year since 11 Oct 2017.
Bitcoin, daily flips: 79 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2026Lasted 73 days so far | Bull | $66,556 | −4.0% | +9.7% | not yet | +27.0% so far |
| 22 May 2026Lasted 60 days | Bear | $75,540 | −2.8% | −16.2% | −3.3% | −11.9% |
| 13 Apr 2026Lasted 39 days | Bull | $74,418 | +1.9% | +6.6% | −14.3% | +1.5% |
| 29 Mar 2026Lasted 15 days | Bear | $66,011 | +4.6% | +15.7% | −9.1% | +12.7% |
| 4 Mar 2026Lasted 25 days | Bull | $72,667 | −3.4% | −7.8% | −8.1% | −9.2% |
| 20 Jan 2026Lasted 43 days | Bear | $88,428 | +0.9% | −24.2% | −14.2% | −17.8% |
| 13 Jan 2026Lasted 7 days | Bull | $95,414 | −7.3% | −30.5% | −22.0% | −7.3% |
| 10 Oct 2025Lasted 95 days | Bear | $112,775 | −5.6% | −7.1% | −19.2% | −15.4% |
| 1 Oct 2025Lasted 9 days | Bull | $118,595 | +4.0% | −7.6% | −25.4% | −4.9% |
| 21 Aug 2025Lasted 41 days | Bear | $112,500 | +0.1% | +2.8% | −18.6% | +5.4% |
| 9 Jul 2025Lasted 43 days | Bull | $111,234 | +6.6% | +4.9% | +9.1% | +1.1% |
| 22 Jun 2025Lasted 17 days | Bear | $100,964 | +7.3% | +18.8% | +14.6% | +10.2% |
| 22 Apr 2025Lasted 61 days | Bull | $93,443 | +0.9% | +19.5% | +25.6% | +8.0% |
| 10 Mar 2025Lasted 43 days | Bear | $78,596 | +6.9% | +5.1% | +34.5% | +18.9% |
| 2 Mar 2025Lasted 8 days | Bull | $94,270 | −14.4% | −9.7% | +10.9% | −16.6% |
| 24 Feb 2025Lasted 6 days | Bear | $91,553 | −5.8% | −5.1% | +19.1% | +3.0% |
| 17 Jan 2025Lasted 38 days | Bull | $104,077 | +0.8% | −7.6% | −18.4% | −12.0% |
| 23 Dec 2024Lasted 25 days | Bear | $94,881 | −2.2% | +9.3% | −9.3% | +9.7% |
| 19 Sep 2024Lasted 95 days | Bull | $62,948 | +3.5% | +8.6% | +59.2% | +50.7% |
| 5 Sep 2024Lasted 14 days | Bear | $56,180 | +3.5% | +10.5% | +75.5% | +12.0% |
| 23 Aug 2024Lasted 13 days | Bull | $64,037 | −7.7% | −0.7% | +53.5% | −12.3% |
| 3 Aug 2024Lasted 20 days | Bear | $60,698 | +0.4% | −2.6% | +14.5% | +5.5% |
| 15 Jul 2024Lasted 19 days | Bull | $64,724 | +4.3% | −9.3% | −2.9% | −6.2% |
| 21 Jun 2024Lasted 24 days | Bear | $64,144 | −5.8% | +6.3% | −1.9% | +0.9% |
| 20 May 2024Lasted 32 days | Bull | $71,447 | −2.8% | −9.1% | −18.2% | −10.2% |
| 19 Mar 2024Lasted 62 days | Bear | $61,937 | +13.0% | +2.5% | +7.4% | +15.4% |
| 8 Feb 2024Lasted 40 days | Bull | $45,289 | +14.6% | +50.8% | +35.1% | +36.8% |
| 22 Jan 2024Lasted 17 days | Bear | $39,568 | +9.4% | +31.0% | +64.1% | +14.5% |
| 1 Oct 2023Lasted 113 days | Bull | $27,993 | −0.3% | +23.7% | +50.5% | +41.4% |
| 17 Aug 2023Lasted 45 days | Bear | $26,623 | −1.7% | −0.2% | +42.2% | +5.1% |
| 20 Jun 2023Lasted 58 days | Bull | $28,308 | +8.4% | +5.3% | −5.5% | −6.0% |
| 21 Apr 2023Lasted 60 days | Bear | $27,263 | +7.5% | −1.9% | +9.3% | +3.8% |
| 13 Mar 2023Lasted 39 days | Bull | $24,113 | +14.9% | +23.9% | +7.5% | +13.1% |
| 8 Mar 2023Lasted 5 days | Bear | $21,705 | +11.9% | +28.6% | +25.5% | +11.1% |
| 11 Jan 2023Lasted 56 days | Bull | $17,943 | +15.2% | +20.5% | +68.3% | +21.0% |
| 8 Nov 2022Lasted 64 days | Bear | $18,547 | −8.9% | −7.1% | +22.7% | −3.3% |
| 26 Oct 2022Lasted 13 days | Bull | $20,772 | −3.0% | −20.5% | +9.0% | −10.7% |
| 20 Sep 2022Lasted 36 days | Bear | $18,875 | +1.1% | +0.9% | −12.9% | +10.0% |
| 10 Sep 2022Lasted 10 days | Bull | $21,648 | −7.1% | −11.6% | −20.9% | −12.8% |
| 19 Aug 2022Lasted 22 days | Bear | $20,834 | −2.8% | −6.8% | −19.9% | +3.9% |
| 19 Jul 2022Lasted 31 days | Bull | $23,397 | −9.2% | −0.9% | −16.4% | −11.0% |
| 8 Apr 2022Lasted 102 days | Bear | $42,252 | −4.0% | −19.4% | −48.8% | −44.6% |
| 1 Mar 2022Lasted 38 days | Bull | $44,421 | −12.8% | +2.5% | −28.6% | −4.9% |
| 21 Feb 2022Lasted 8 days | Bear | $37,008 | +16.6% | +15.9% | −18.1% | +20.0% |
| 7 Feb 2022Lasted 14 days | Bull | $43,840 | −3.0% | −4.3% | −22.4% | −15.6% |
| 18 Nov 2021Lasted 81 days | Bear | $56,892 | +3.6% | −17.7% | −22.9% | −22.9% |
| 5 Oct 2021Lasted 44 days | Bull | $51,472 | +8.8% | +19.3% | −9.8% | +10.5% |
| 10 Sep 2021Lasted 25 days | Bear | $44,851 | +5.5% | +21.9% | +6.0% | +14.8% |
| 25 Jul 2021Lasted 47 days | Bull | $35,381 | +12.6% | +34.7% | +73.2% | +26.8% |
| 21 Apr 2021Lasted 95 days | Bear | $53,788 | +2.0% | −30.7% | −44.6% | −34.2% |
| 13 Mar 2021Lasted 39 days | Bull | $61,188 | −5.0% | −2.2% | −39.0% | −12.1% |
| 26 Feb 2021Lasted 15 days | Bear | $46,277 | +5.3% | +20.5% | −16.7% | +32.2% |
| 8 Feb 2021Lasted 18 days | Bull | $46,375 | +3.3% | +20.4% | +25.6% | −0.2% |
| 21 Jan 2021Lasted 18 days | Bear | $30,850 | +8.2% | +81.0% | +74.4% | +50.3% |
| 12 Oct 2020Lasted 101 days | Bull | $11,528 | +1.9% | +36.1% | +230.9% | +167.6% |
| 3 Sep 2020Lasted 39 days | Bear | $10,141 | +1.9% | +4.0% | +89.4% | +13.7% |
| 23 Apr 2020Lasted 133 days | Bull | $7,482 | +15.2% | +22.7% | +27.2% | +35.5% |
| 26 Feb 2020Lasted 57 days | Bear | $8,785 | −0.4% | −27.6% | +0.6% | −14.8% |
| 6 Jan 2020Lasted 51 days | Bull | $7,758 | +4.5% | +23.9% | −12.7% | +13.2% |
| 21 Nov 2019Lasted 46 days | Bear | $7,628 | −2.7% | −6.5% | +25.8% | +1.7% |
| 25 Oct 2019Lasted 27 days | Bull | $8,655 | +6.7% | −20.2% | −2.9% | −11.9% |
| 28 Aug 2019Lasted 58 days | Bear | $9,721 | +8.7% | −15.9% | −26.4% | −11.0% |
| 5 Aug 2019Lasted 23 days | Bull | $11,829 | −3.7% | −10.7% | −22.3% | −17.8% |
| 14 Jul 2019Lasted 22 days | Bear | $10,174 | +4.1% | +7.1% | −18.4% | +16.3% |
| 18 Feb 2019Lasted 146 days | Bull | $3,899 | −1.8% | +3.7% | +109.0% | +161.0% |
| 29 Jan 2019Lasted 20 days | Bear | $3,411 | +1.8% | +11.8% | +53.6% | +14.3% |
| 20 Dec 2018Lasted 40 days | Bull | $4,050 | −11.9% | −9.5% | −0.2% | −15.8% |
| 6 Sep 2018Lasted 105 days | Bear | $6,516 | −0.4% | +1.2% | −42.1% | −37.9% |
| 2 Sep 2018Lasted 4 days | Bull | $7,302 | −14.4% | −10.6% | −42.6% | −10.8% |
| 4 Aug 2018Lasted 29 days | Bear | $7,010 | −11.1% | +3.6% | −8.2% | +4.2% |
| 17 Jul 2018Lasted 18 days | Bull | $7,317 | +14.8% | −13.7% | −7.7% | −4.2% |
| 11 May 2018Lasted 67 days | Bear | $8,400 | −1.9% | −19.5% | −22.3% | −12.9% |
| 15 Apr 2018Lasted 26 days | Bull | $8,355 | +5.2% | +1.3% | −25.2% | +0.5% |
| 9 Mar 2018Lasted 37 days | Bear | $9,227 | −10.5% | −23.9% | −16.6% | −9.5% |
| 3 Mar 2018Lasted 6 days | Bull | $11,464 | −23.5% | −38.5% | −34.4% | −19.5% |
| 22 Dec 2017Lasted 71 days | Bear | $13,327 | +7.9% | −13.5% | −34.5% | −14.0% |
| 16 Nov 2017Lasted 36 days | Bull | $7,865 | +2.0% | +142.9% | +20.2% | +69.5% |
| 12 Nov 2017Lasted 4 days | Bear | $5,811 | +38.3% | +181.4% | +46.9% | +35.3% |
| 11 Oct 2017Lasted 32 days | Bull | $4,821 | +14.3% | +35.0% | +198.7% | +20.5% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 11 Oct 2017, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
79 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.