Every Bitcoin weekly trend flip since 2018, and what happened next
Bitcoin's weekly trend line has flipped 10 times since 4 Feb 2018, about once a year. The large moves happened across whole runs: +315.1% from the bullish flip of 22 Jan 2023 to the next flip, −45.8% after the bearish flip of 9 Jan 2022. The first weeks after a flip looked much like any other weeks.
As of 5 Oct 2026, 13:35 UTC
Bitcoin's price and its weekly trend
Weekly closes on a logarithmic scale, shaded green while the trend line was bullish and red while it was bearish. Step through the flips, or select a diamond. Events are context chosen by hand, each checked against two sources; the trend line knows only the price.
event in the weeks before a flip event inside a run, no flipPoint at a dot to read it.
Flipped bullish with the week ending 6 Sep 2026, at $80,342
- 7 days later
- −4.4%
- 30 days later
- not yet
- 90 days later
- not yet
- Until the next flip
- +7.7% so far
- Lasted
- 4 weeks so far
- 4 Sep 2026 US jobs report: 162,000 jobs added in August CoinDesk
What happened after each flip
Each change is measured from the close of the week that flipped. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Week ending | Flipped to | Price | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip | Lasted | Events in the weeks before |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Feb 2018 | Bear | $8,185 | −1.5% | +30.9% | +20.5% | −35.2% | 64 weeks | 11 Jan 2018: South Korea considers banning crypto exchange trading26 Jan 2018: Japanese exchange Coincheck reports theft of $530 million |
| 28 Apr 2019 | Bull | $5,308 | +8.8% | +64.2% | +78.5% | +51.6% | 22 weeks | none listed |
| 29 Sep 2019 | Bear | $8,044 | −2.4% | +17.0% | −9.0% | +37.6% | 44 weeks | 23 Sep 2019: Bakkt begins trading physically delivered Bitcoin futures |
| 2 Aug 2020 | Bull | $11,071 | +5.5% | +7.7% | +24.6% | +213.0% | 42 weeks | 22 Jul 2020: OCC says US national banks may offer crypto custody |
| 23 May 2021 | Bear | $34,655 | +2.8% | −6.2% | +40.9% | +57.7% | 20 weeks | 12 May 2021: Tesla stops accepting Bitcoin for car purchases18 May 2021: China bars banks and payment firms from crypto services21 May 2021: China's State Council committee vows a mining crackdown |
| 10 Oct 2021 | Bull | $54,659 | +12.6% | +22.5% | −23.7% | −23.4% | 13 weeks | 24 Sep 2021: China's central bank declares crypto transactions illegal |
| 9 Jan 2022 | Bear | $41,865 | +2.9% | +5.2% | +2.1% | −45.8% | 54 weeks | 15 Dec 2021: Fed speeds up bond-buying wind-down and signals 2022 hikes5 Jan 2022: Fed minutes cover earlier hikes and a smaller balance sheet |
| 22 Jan 2023 | Bull | $22,708 | +4.6% | +7.7% | +22.5% | +315.1% | 147 weeks | 12 Jan 2023: US December inflation reported at 6.5%, down from 7.1%19 Jan 2023: Crypto lender Genesis files for bankruptcy |
| 16 Nov 2025 | Bear | $94,261 | −7.9% | −6.8% | −25.9% | −14.8% | 42 weeks | 10 Oct 2025: Trump announces 100% China tariff; crypto liquidations surge29 Oct 2025: Fed cuts rates, Powell says a December cut is not certain |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Bull | $80,342 | −4.4% | not yet | not yet | +7.7% so far | 4 weeks so far | 4 Sep 2026: US jobs report: 162,000 jobs added in August |
What this shows, and what it doesn't
- The trend line describes the trend; it does not forecast it. After the 4 bullish flips that are old enough, the median change 90 days later was +22.5%; after the 5 bearish flips, +2.1%; after any day since 2018, +2.9%. A bearish flip did not by itself mean the price went down.
- The runs are where the size was. Runs lasted 42 weeks typically and up to 147 weeks. The line changes side about as rarely as that, so it stays on one side through most of a large move, in either direction.
- 10 flips are a small sample. These figures describe what happened. A different period could look different, and any flip can fail.
- Events are context, not causes. Events are context chosen by hand, each checked against two sources; the trend line knows only the price. Many large events happened in the middle of a run without a flip.
Events that did not flip the trend
Large events that happened inside a run, with the weekly trend unchanged on both sides of them.
- 12 Mar 2020Bitcoin falls sharply in a global market sell-offSiliconANGLEForklogBloomberg (via Business Report)
- 11 May 2020Bitcoin's block reward halves to 6.25 BTC (third halving)Information Age (Australian Computer Society)SlashGearKraken Learn
- 8 Feb 2021Tesla discloses a $1.5 billion Bitcoin purchaseThe BlockTechCrunch
- 11 May 2022LUNA collapses as UST stablecoin loses its dollar pegThe BlockForklog
- 11 Nov 2022FTX files for bankruptcy; its founder steps downThe BlockFortune
- 10 Jan 2024SEC approves listing of US spot Bitcoin ETFsUS Securities and Exchange CommissionMintzThe Block
- 20 Apr 2024Bitcoin's block reward halves to 3.125 BTC (fourth halving)ForklogKraken Learnmempool.space (block explorer)
- 6 Mar 2025US executive order creates a Strategic Bitcoin ReserveThe American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara)Clark HillReuters (via New Straits Times)
Method and data
The weekly trend line is the site's published rule for Bitcoin: Supertrend with a length of 10 and a factor of 3, on closed weekly candles of Bitcoin against the US dollar (Binance, weeks from Monday 00:00 UTC to Sunday). A flip is written when its week closes and is never edited. A flip is named by the last day of its week. Changes are measured from that week's close; the "any day" figure is the median 90-day change over every day since the first flip.
The same records are on the track record, which also shows every other coin. How the rules work is on the About page.
Cite as: MarketRender, "Every Bitcoin weekly trend flip since 2018, and what happened next", marketrender.com/reports/bitcoin-weekly-flips.