Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Bitcoin's weekly flips
After bearish flips the median price was still higher 90 days later. A bearish flip did not by itself mean the price went down. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 5 of 5 | +5.5% | −4.4% to +12.6% (94%) | −6.5% to +8.8% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 4 of 5 | +7.7% | +7.7% to +64.2% (88%) | −22.3% to +19.4% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 4 of 5 | +22.5% | −23.7% to +78.5% (88%) | −34.8% to +43.1% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 5 of 5 | −1.5% | −7.9% to +2.9% (94%) | −6.5% to +8.8% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 5 of 5 | +5.2% | −6.8% to +30.9% (94%) | −15.0% to +24.7% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 5 of 5 | +2.1% | −25.9% to +40.9% (94%) | −24.5% to +53.8% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 4 Feb 2018, for comparison | 7 | 3,156 days | +0.5% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 3,133 days | +1.5% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 3,073 days | +2.9% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest flip is too recent to count in the 30 and 90 day columns.
Prices are weekly closes on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 weeks) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 5 | 0 of 5 |
| After bearish flips | 5 | 0 of 5 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 weeks. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Bitcoin's weekly line has flipped 1.2 times a year since 4 Feb 2018.
Bitcoin, weekly flips: 10 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Sep 2026Lasted 3 weeks so far | Bull | $80,342 | −4.4% | not yet | not yet | +5.1% so far |
| 16 Nov 2025Lasted 42 weeks | Bear | $94,261 | −7.9% | −6.8% | −25.9% | −14.8% |
| 22 Jan 2023Lasted 147 weeks | Bull | $22,708 | +4.6% | +7.7% | +22.5% | +315.1% |
| 9 Jan 2022Lasted 54 weeks | Bear | $41,865 | +2.9% | +5.2% | +2.1% | −45.8% |
| 10 Oct 2021Lasted 13 weeks | Bull | $54,659 | +12.6% | +22.5% | −23.7% | −23.4% |
| 23 May 2021Lasted 20 weeks | Bear | $34,655 | +2.8% | −6.2% | +40.9% | +57.7% |
| 2 Aug 2020Lasted 42 weeks | Bull | $11,071 | +5.5% | +7.7% | +24.6% | +213.0% |
| 29 Sep 2019Lasted 44 weeks | Bear | $8,044 | −2.4% | +17.0% | −9.0% | +37.6% |
| 28 Apr 2019Lasted 22 weeks | Bull | $5,308 | +8.8% | +64.2% | +78.5% | +51.6% |
| 4 Feb 2018Lasted 64 weeks | Bear | $8,185 | −1.5% | +30.9% | +20.5% | −35.2% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 4 Feb 2018, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
Ten flips are a small sample. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.