On 4-hour candles, the whole market is strongly bullish, in a bull trend since 18 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC.
One number from −100 to +100 for the whole crypto market: Bitcoin, the altcoins, and how many coins are trending up, blended by fixed, published rules.
- Bull trend since 18 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC, 18 days ago
- Market index +6.8% since that flip
Trend score and market index
4-hour candles. Index on top, score below, on the same dates.
- Bull trend
- Bear trend
- Flip
- Two closes in a row past ±35 flip the trend
The index follows the combined market value of the 200 largest coins we score; it is a level, not dollars. 4-hour scores start on 18 Apr 2026, when breadth was first counted.
What makes up the score
The newest 4-hour candle, 6 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC, part by part.
- Bitcoin's trend score+37.5Score +91 · weight 41%Bitcoin's own score on the same candle.
- Altcoins' trend score+12.2Score +52 · weight 24%The score of an index of the 200 largest coins we score without Bitcoin, weighted by market value.
- Breadth+21.1Score +60 · weight 35%How many of the counted coins are trending up: +100 if all are, −100 if none are.
- Trend score+71
| Part | Score | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin's trend scoreBitcoin's own score on the same candle. | +91 | 41% | +37.5 |
| Altcoins' trend scoreThe score of an index of the 200 largest coins we score without Bitcoin, weighted by market value. | +52 | 24% | +12.2 |
| BreadthHow many of the counted coins are trending up: +100 if all are, −100 if none are. | +60 | 35% | +21.1 |
| Trend score | +71 |
Breadth behind the score
On 6 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC, 75% of the 199 coins counted were in a bull trend and 85% closed above their base line, which makes the breadth part +60.
Breadth part = twice the average of the two shares, minus 100. It is 0 when the average is 50%, +100 when every coin is in a bull trend and above its base line, −100 when none is.
Every flip on 4-hour candles
Since 18 Apr 2026.
- 10flips since 18 Apr 2026
- 56%of 4-hour candles in a bull trend
- 13 days 8 hourstypical bull trend (median) · longest 27 days 4 hours
- 8 daystypical bear trend (median) · longest 49 days
| The flip | The trend that followed | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Turned to | Index | Score | Lasted | Index change |
| 18 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTCNow | Bull | 449.8 | +64 | 17 days 8 hours so far | +6.8% so far |
| 16 Sep 2026, 00:00 UTC | Bear | 417.7 | −59 | 2 days 16 hours | +7.7% |
| 19 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC | Bull | 372.7 | +52 | 27 days 4 hours | +12.1% |
| 11 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC | Bear | 346.9 | −47 | 8 days | +7.4% |
| 8 Aug 2026, 08:00 UTC | Bull | 352.8 | +36 | 3 days 12 hours | −1.7% |
| 26 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC | Bear | 350.2 | −41 | 13 days 8 hours | +0.7% |
| 4 Jul 2026, 04:00 UTC | Bull | 343.2 | +49 | 21 days 20 hours | +2.0% |
| 16 May 2026, 04:00 UTC | Bear | 429.1 | −48 | 49 days | −20.0% |
| 2 May 2026, 20:00 UTC | Bull | 424.8 | +41 | 13 days 8 hours | +1.0% |
| 30 Apr 2026, 08:00 UTC | Bear | 413.9 | −37 | 2 days 12 hours | +2.6% |
- Bull18 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTCNow+6.8%17 days 8 hours so far · index 449.8 · score +64
- Bear16 Sep 2026, 00:00 UTC+7.7%2 days 16 hours · index 417.7 · score −59
- Bull19 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC+12.1%27 days 4 hours · index 372.7 · score +52
- Bear11 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC+7.4%8 days · index 346.9 · score −47
- Bull8 Aug 2026, 08:00 UTC−1.7%3 days 12 hours · index 352.8 · score +36
- Bear26 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC+0.7%13 days 8 hours · index 350.2 · score −41
- Bull4 Jul 2026, 04:00 UTC+2.0%21 days 20 hours · index 343.2 · score +49
- Bear16 May 2026, 04:00 UTC−20.0%49 days · index 429.1 · score −48
- Bull2 May 2026, 20:00 UTC+1.0%13 days 8 hours · index 424.8 · score +41
- Bear30 Apr 2026, 08:00 UTC+2.6%2 days 12 hours · index 413.9 · score −37
Green means the index rose, red that it fell, whatever the flip said. Index change runs from the flip to the next flip, or to the newest candle. 7, 30 and 90 days later are not shown on 4-hour candles: such a change would run from a 4-hour close to a daily close, and the market index's 4-hour and daily candles were built on slightly different levels.
How the score is calculated
Six fixed rules, published as market-v1.1.
- 1
Three parts
Bitcoin's own score, the score of an index of the 200 largest coins we score without Bitcoin (weighted by market value), and breadth, the share of those coins trending up. Each runs from −100 to +100.
- 2
Fixed weights
Bitcoin 41%, altcoins 24%, breadth 35%. The score is their weighted average, rounded. Without Bitcoin or breadth on a candle there is no score.
- 3
The band word follows the score
The label is read straight off the number:
Strong bearBearNeutralBullStrong bull−100−60−20+20+60+100 - 4
The trend needs confirmation
On 4-hour candles the trend turns bullish after two closes in a row at +35 or above, and bearish after two at −35 or below. In between it stays as it was, so a Neutral score can sit inside a bull or a bear trend.
- 5
Closed candles only
Nothing is scored until the candle closes. Weekly and monthly candles are built from the daily ones.
- 6
Versioned, never edited
These rules are published as market-v1.1. A rule change gets a new version and its own history. market-v1.0 had a fourth part, the stablecoins' share; it was dropped on 3 Oct 2026 because it moved almost only with prices, a second, reversed vote on the price trend.