On monthly candles, the whole market is neutral, still inside a bear trend since 30 Nov 2025.
One number from −100 to +100 for the whole crypto market: Bitcoin, the altcoins, and how many coins are trending up, blended by fixed, published rules.
- Bear trend since 30 Nov 2025, 310 days ago
- Market index −9.2% since that flip
Trend score and market index
Monthly candles. Index on top, score below, on the same dates.
- Bull trend
- Bear trend
- Flip
- One close past ±35 flips the trend
The index follows the combined market value of the 200 largest coins we score; it is a level, not dollars. Monthly scores start on 1 May 2019, when breadth was first counted.
What makes up the score
The newest monthly candle, 30 Sep 2026, part by part.
- Bitcoin's trend score−3.7Score −9 · weight 41%Bitcoin's own score on the same candle.
- Altcoins' trend score+3.3Score +14 · weight 24%The score of an index of the 200 largest coins we score without Bitcoin, weighted by market value.
- Breadth−5.7Score −16 · weight 35%How many of the counted coins are trending up: +100 if all are, −100 if none are.
- Trend score−6
| Part | Score | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin's trend scoreBitcoin's own score on the same candle. | −9 | 41% | −3.7 |
| Altcoins' trend scoreThe score of an index of the 200 largest coins we score without Bitcoin, weighted by market value. | +14 | 24% | +3.3 |
| BreadthHow many of the counted coins are trending up: +100 if all are, −100 if none are. | −16 | 35% | −5.7 |
| Trend score | −6 |
Breadth behind the score
On 30 Sep 2026, 10% of the 161 coins counted were in a bull trend and 74% closed above their base line, which makes the breadth part −16.
Breadth part = twice the average of the two shares, minus 100. It is 0 when the average is 50%, +100 when every coin is in a bull trend and above its base line, −100 when none is.
Every flip on monthly candles
Since 1 May 2019.
- 5flips since 1 May 2019
- 57%of monthly candles in a bull trend
Five flips are too few to summarise: each one is listed below.
| The flip | The trend that followed | Index after the flip | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Turned to | Index | Score | Lasted | Index change | 7 days | 30 days | 90 days |
| 30 Nov 2025Now | Bear | 550.9 | −39 | 10 months so far | −9.2% so far | −0.1% | −3.2% | −28.3% |
| 30 Nov 2023 | Bull | 279.8 | +41 | 24 months | +96.9% | +14.1% | +17.8% | +65.6% |
| 30 Apr 2022 | Bear | 350.8 | −45 | 19 months | −20.3% | −4.8% | −23.3% | −37.9% |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Bull | 164.3 | +85 | 21 months | +113.6% | +5.0% | +11.2% | −26.8% |
| 30 Nov 2019 | Bear | 104.7 | −53 | 8 months | +56.9% | −1.1% | −6.4% | +19.6% |
- Bear30 Nov 2025Now−9.2%10 months so far · index 550.9 · score −397 days−0.1%30 days−3.2%90 days−28.3%
- Bull30 Nov 2023+96.9%24 months · index 279.8 · score +417 days+14.1%30 days+17.8%90 days+65.6%
- Bear30 Apr 2022−20.3%19 months · index 350.8 · score −457 days−4.8%30 days−23.3%90 days−37.9%
- Bull31 Jul 2020+113.6%21 months · index 164.3 · score +857 days+5.0%30 days+11.2%90 days−26.8%
- Bear30 Nov 2019+56.9%8 months · index 104.7 · score −537 days−1.1%30 days−6.4%90 days+19.6%
Green means the index rose, red that it fell, whatever the flip said. Index change runs from the flip to the next flip, or to the newest candle.
How the score is calculated
Six fixed rules, published as market-v1.1.
- 1
Three parts
Bitcoin's own score, the score of an index of the 200 largest coins we score without Bitcoin (weighted by market value), and breadth, the share of those coins trending up. Each runs from −100 to +100.
- 2
Fixed weights
Bitcoin 41%, altcoins 24%, breadth 35%. The score is their weighted average, rounded. Without Bitcoin or breadth on a candle there is no score.
- 3
The band word follows the score
The label is read straight off the number:
Strong bearBearNeutralBullStrong bull−100−60−20+20+60+100 - 4
The trend needs confirmation
On monthly candles the trend turns bullish after one close at +35 or above, and bearish after one at −35 or below. In between it stays as it was, so a Neutral score can sit inside a bull or a bear trend.
- 5
Closed candles only
Nothing is scored until the candle closes. Weekly and monthly candles are built from the daily ones.
- 6
Versioned, never edited
These rules are published as market-v1.1. A rule change gets a new version and its own history. market-v1.0 had a fourth part, the stablecoins' share; it was dropped on 3 Oct 2026 because it moved almost only with prices, a second, reversed vote on the price trend.