On weekly candles, the whole market is strongly bullish, in a bull trend since 27 Sep 2026.
One number from −100 to +100 for the whole crypto market: Bitcoin, the altcoins, and how many coins are trending up, blended by fixed, published rules.
- Bull trend since 27 Sep 2026, 9 days ago
- Market index +1.7% since that flip
Trend score and market index
Weekly candles. Index on top, score below, on the same dates.
- Bull trend
- Bear trend
- Flip
- One close past ±35 flips the trend
The index follows the combined market value of the 200 largest coins we score; it is a level, not dollars. Weekly scores start on 19 Nov 2018, when breadth was first counted.
What makes up the score
The newest weekly candle, 4 Oct 2026, part by part.
- Bitcoin's trend score+40.8Score +99 · weight 41%Bitcoin's own score on the same candle.
- Altcoins' trend score+23.5Score +100 · weight 24%The score of an index of the 200 largest coins we score without Bitcoin, weighted by market value.
- Breadth+12.6Score +36 · weight 35%How many of the counted coins are trending up: +100 if all are, −100 if none are.
- Trend score+77
| Part | Score | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin's trend scoreBitcoin's own score on the same candle. | +99 | 41% | +40.8 |
| Altcoins' trend scoreThe score of an index of the 200 largest coins we score without Bitcoin, weighted by market value. | +100 | 24% | +23.5 |
| BreadthHow many of the counted coins are trending up: +100 if all are, −100 if none are. | +36 | 35% | +12.6 |
| Trend score | +77 |
Breadth behind the score
On 4 Oct 2026, 46% of the 182 coins counted were in a bull trend and 90% closed above their base line, which makes the breadth part +36.
Breadth part = twice the average of the two shares, minus 100. It is 0 when the average is 50%, +100 when every coin is in a bull trend and above its base line, −100 when none is.
Every flip on weekly candles
Since 19 Nov 2018.
- 17flips since 19 Nov 2018
- 49%of weekly candles in a bull trend
- 19 weekstypical bull trend (median) · longest 56 weeks
- 13 weekstypical bear trend (median) · longest 64 weeks
What the market index did after the flips
| Days after the flip | After a turn to Bull | After a turn to Bear |
|---|---|---|
| 7 days later | +1.5%median of 9 flips · range −0.7% to +4.3% | +0.4%median of 8 flips · range −8.3% to +4.6% |
| 30 days later | −3.3%median of 8 flips · range −15.4% to +13.6% | +1.0%median of 8 flips · range −2.2% to +27.1% |
| 90 days later | +0.8%median of 8 flips · range −8.9% to +24.5% | +22.4%median of 8 flips · range −10.9% to +67.4% |
- 7 days laterBull+1.5%Bear+0.4%
- 30 days laterBull−3.3%Bear+1.0%
- 90 days laterBull+0.8%Bear+22.4%
Change of the index from the close of the flip candle. The range holds the median of flips like these at least 9 times in 10 (with fewer than 6 flips it is the lowest to the highest result). Flips are few and bunch up in time: read them as a record, not a forecast.
| The flip | The trend that followed | Index after the flip | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Turned to | Index | Score | Lasted | Index change | 7 days | 30 days | 90 days |
| 27 Sep 2026Now | Bull | 506.0 | +73 | 1 week so far | +1.7% so far | +1.7% | not yet | not yet |
| 16 Nov 2025 | Bear | 576.9 | −42 | 45 weeks | −12.3% | −8.3% | −7.7% | −28.1% |
| 20 Jul 2025 | Bull | 732.3 | +64 | 17 weeks | −21.2% | +1.5% | −3.3% | −8.9% |
| 16 Mar 2025 | Bear | 498.0 | −43 | 18 weeks | +47.1% | +4.6% | −2.2% | +22.4% |
| 10 Nov 2024 | Bull | 532.5 | +36 | 18 weeks | −6.5% | +10.1% | +25.6% | +12.3% |
| 11 Aug 2024 | Bear | 390.9 | −43 | 13 weeks | +36.2% | +0.4% | −1.8% | +30.1% |
| 29 Oct 2023 | Bull | 246.6 | +36 | 41 weeks | +58.5% | +4.3% | +13.6% | +30.4% |
| 10 Sep 2023 | Bear | 196.1 | −40 | 7 weeks | +25.8% | +1.7% | +2.9% | +65.7% |
| 16 Apr 2023 | Bull | 254.3 | +67 | 21 weeks | −22.9% | −10.6% | −13.8% | −6.5% |
| 23 Jan 2022 | Bear | 361.7 | −76 | 64 weeks | −29.7% | +1.6% | +1.0% | +6.8% |
| 22 Aug 2021 | Bull | 507.2 | +41 | 22 weeks | −28.7% | −0.5% | −15.4% | +24.5% |
| 11 Jul 2021 | Bear | 334.1 | −47 | 6 weeks | +51.8% | −10.3% | +33.4% | +67.4% |
- Bull27 Sep 2026Now+1.7%1 week so far · index 506.0 · score +737 days+1.7%30 daysnot yet90 daysnot yet
- Bear16 Nov 2025−12.3%45 weeks · index 576.9 · score −427 days−8.3%30 days−7.7%90 days−28.1%
- Bull20 Jul 2025−21.2%17 weeks · index 732.3 · score +647 days+1.5%30 days−3.3%90 days−8.9%
- Bear16 Mar 2025+47.1%18 weeks · index 498.0 · score −437 days+4.6%30 days−2.2%90 days+22.4%
- Bull10 Nov 2024−6.5%18 weeks · index 532.5 · score +367 days+10.1%30 days+25.6%90 days+12.3%
- Bear11 Aug 2024+36.2%13 weeks · index 390.9 · score −437 days+0.4%30 days−1.8%90 days+30.1%
- Bull29 Oct 2023+58.5%41 weeks · index 246.6 · score +367 days+4.3%30 days+13.6%90 days+30.4%
- Bear10 Sep 2023+25.8%7 weeks · index 196.1 · score −407 days+1.7%30 days+2.9%90 days+65.7%
- Bull16 Apr 2023−22.9%21 weeks · index 254.3 · score +677 days−10.6%30 days−13.8%90 days−6.5%
- Bear23 Jan 2022−29.7%64 weeks · index 361.7 · score −767 days+1.6%30 days+1.0%90 days+6.8%
- Bull22 Aug 2021−28.7%22 weeks · index 507.2 · score +417 days−0.5%30 days−15.4%90 days+24.5%
- Bear11 Jul 2021+51.8%6 weeks · index 334.1 · score −477 days−10.3%30 days+33.4%90 days+67.4%
Green means the index rose, red that it fell, whatever the flip said. Index change runs from the flip to the next flip, or to the newest candle.
How the score is calculated
Six fixed rules, published as market-v1.1.
- 1
Three parts
Bitcoin's own score, the score of an index of the 200 largest coins we score without Bitcoin (weighted by market value), and breadth, the share of those coins trending up. Each runs from −100 to +100.
- 2
Fixed weights
Bitcoin 41%, altcoins 24%, breadth 35%. The score is their weighted average, rounded. Without Bitcoin or breadth on a candle there is no score.
- 3
The band word follows the score
The label is read straight off the number:
Strong bearBearNeutralBullStrong bull−100−60−20+20+60+100 - 4
The trend needs confirmation
On weekly candles the trend turns bullish after one close at +35 or above, and bearish after one at −35 or below. In between it stays as it was, so a Neutral score can sit inside a bull or a bear trend.
- 5
Closed candles only
Nothing is scored until the candle closes. Weekly and monthly candles are built from the daily ones.
- 6
Versioned, never edited
These rules are published as market-v1.1. A rule change gets a new version and its own history. market-v1.0 had a fourth part, the stablecoins' share; it was dropped on 3 Oct 2026 because it moved almost only with prices, a second, reversed vote on the price trend.