On daily candles, the whole market is strongly bullish, in a bull trend since 21 Aug 2026.
One number from −100 to +100 for the whole crypto market: Bitcoin, the altcoins, and how many coins are trending up, blended by fixed, published rules.
- Bull trend since 21 Aug 2026, 46 days ago
- Market index +11.1% since that flip
Trend score and market index
Daily candles. Index on top, score below, on the same dates.
- Bull trend
- Bear trend
- Flip
- Two closes in a row past ±35 flip the trend
The index follows the combined market value of the 200 largest coins we score; it is a level, not dollars. Daily scores start on 24 Jul 2018, when breadth was first counted.
What makes up the score
The newest daily candle, 5 Oct 2026, part by part.
- Bitcoin's trend score+40.4Score +98 · weight 41%Bitcoin's own score on the same candle.
- Altcoins' trend score+23.5Score +100 · weight 24%The score of an index of the 200 largest coins we score without Bitcoin, weighted by market value.
- Breadth+25.8Score +73 · weight 35%How many of the counted coins are trending up: +100 if all are, −100 if none are.
- Trend score+90
| Part | Score | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin's trend scoreBitcoin's own score on the same candle. | +98 | 41% | +40.4 |
| Altcoins' trend scoreThe score of an index of the 200 largest coins we score without Bitcoin, weighted by market value. | +100 | 24% | +23.5 |
| BreadthHow many of the counted coins are trending up: +100 if all are, −100 if none are. | +73 | 35% | +25.8 |
| Trend score | +90 |
Breadth behind the score
On 5 Oct 2026, 94% of the 196 coins counted were in a bull trend and 79% closed above their base line, which makes the breadth part +73.
Breadth part = twice the average of the two shares, minus 100. It is 0 when the average is 50%, +100 when every coin is in a bull trend and above its base line, −100 when none is.
Every flip on daily candles
Since 24 Jul 2018.
- 29flips since 24 Jul 2018
- 42%of daily candles in a bull trend
- 55 daystypical bull trend (median) · longest 190 days
- 66 daystypical bear trend (median) · longest 406 days
What the market index did after the flips
| Days after the flip | After a turn to Bull | After a turn to Bear |
|---|---|---|
| 7 days later | +1.6%median of 15 flips · range −1.6% to +5.8% | −0.2%median of 14 flips · range −3.8% to +1.7% |
| 30 days later | +11.8%median of 15 flips · range +5.2% to +16.2% | −4.3%median of 14 flips · range −11.8% to +8.8% |
| 90 days later | +18.2%median of 14 flips · range −12.9% to +51.0% | +4.7%median of 14 flips · range −7.3% to +19.5% |
- 7 days laterBull+1.6%Bear−0.2%
- 30 days laterBull+11.8%Bear−4.3%
- 90 days laterBull+18.2%Bear+4.7%
Change of the index from the close of the flip candle. The range holds the median of flips like these at least 9 times in 10 (with fewer than 6 flips it is the lowest to the highest result). Flips are few and bunch up in time: read them as a record, not a forecast.
| The flip | The trend that followed | Index after the flip | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Turned to | Index | Score | Lasted | Index change | 7 days | 30 days | 90 days |
| 21 Aug 2026Now | Bull | 459.6 | +52 | 45 days so far | +11.1% so far | −1.0% | +5.2% | not yet |
| 16 Oct 2025 | Bear | 672.6 | −54 | 309 days | −31.7% | +1.1% | −12.9% | −12.2% |
| 12 Jul 2025 | Bull | 686.6 | +40 | 96 days | −2.0% | +5.8% | +7.9% | +0.4% |
| 23 Jun 2025 | Bear | 604.2 | −44 | 19 days | +13.6% | +2.1% | +20.6% | +23.6% |
| 11 May 2025 | Bull | 624.1 | +45 | 43 days | −3.2% | +1.1% | +4.1% | +18.2% |
| 22 Feb 2025 | Bear | 604.2 | −41 | 78 days | +3.3% | −12.2% | −11.8% | +4.7% |
| 21 Oct 2024 | Bull | 446.6 | +37 | 124 days | +35.3% | +1.6% | +35.6% | +51.0% |
| 22 Jun 2024 | Bear | 451.6 | −43 | 121 days | −1.1% | −4.0% | +4.6% | −7.3% |
| 21 May 2024 | Bull | 513.4 | +40 | 32 days | −12.0% | −1.8% | −11.3% | −22.1% |
| 3 May 2024 | Bear | 455.7 | −35 | 18 days | +12.7% | −3.7% | +8.8% | −1.4% |
| 26 Oct 2023 | Bull | 244.4 | +43 | 190 days | +86.4% | +2.8% | +15.5% | +26.3% |
| 18 Aug 2023 | Bear | 201.0 | −94 | 69 days | +21.6% | −0.2% | −0.8% | +34.4% |
| 15 Jul 2023 | Bull | 237.8 | +35 | 34 days | −15.5% | −2.0% | −4.1% | −16.5% |
| 10 May 2023 | Bear | 222.1 | −36 | 66 days | +7.1% | −0.2% | −4.3% | +3.6% |
| 17 Mar 2023 | Bull | 227.3 | +51 | 54 days | −2.3% | −1.6% | +11.8% | −12.9% |
| 11 Mar 2023 | Bear | 178.3 | −48 | 6 days | +27.5% | +24.8% | +35.0% | +19.2% |
| 15 Jan 2023 | Bull | 187.2 | +39 | 55 days | −4.8% | +7.3% | +5.5% | +34.7% |
| 5 Dec 2021 | Bear | 528.9 | −42 | 406 days | −64.6% | +0.1% | −5.2% | −29.5% |
| 6 Oct 2021 | Bull | 555.8 | +41 | 60 days | −4.8% | +1.9% | +16.2% | −9.7% |
| 25 Sep 2021 | Bear | 454.7 | −41 | 11 days | +22.2% | +12.5% | +38.9% | +18.4% |
| 10 Aug 2021 | Bull | 445.7 | +41 | 46 days | +2.0% | +1.8% | +15.4% | +56.8% |
| 22 May 2021 | Bear | 358.5 | −48 | 80 days | +24.3% | +1.7% | −16.6% | +41.5% |
| 22 Nov 2020 | Bull | 150.0 | +39 | 181 days | +139.0% | +0.1% | +11.6% | +178.0% |
| 22 Sep 2020 | Bear | 142.9 | −53 | 61 days | +5.0% | −3.8% | −14.8% | +14.9% |
| 30 Apr 2020 | Bull | 119.6 | +43 | 145 days | +19.4% | +12.1% | +12.6% | +32.7% |
| 9 Mar 2020 | Bear | 113.5 | −65 | 52 days | +5.4% | −38.1% | −8.7% | +19.5% |
| 18 Jan 2020 | Bull | 123.2 | +42 | 51 days | −7.9% | −6.8% | +16.4% | −19.6% |
| 23 Jul 2019 | Bear | 141.6 | −43 | 179 days | −13.0% | −2.4% | −1.9% | −18.5% |
| 30 Mar 2019 | Bull | 78.2 | +36 | 115 days | +81.1% | +21.2% | +16.5% | +139.6% |
- Bull21 Aug 2026Now+11.1%45 days so far · index 459.6 · score +527 days−1.0%30 days+5.2%90 daysnot yet
- Bear16 Oct 2025−31.7%309 days · index 672.6 · score −547 days+1.1%30 days−12.9%90 days−12.2%
- Bull12 Jul 2025−2.0%96 days · index 686.6 · score +407 days+5.8%30 days+7.9%90 days+0.4%
- Bear23 Jun 2025+13.6%19 days · index 604.2 · score −447 days+2.1%30 days+20.6%90 days+23.6%
- Bull11 May 2025−3.2%43 days · index 624.1 · score +457 days+1.1%30 days+4.1%90 days+18.2%
- Bear22 Feb 2025+3.3%78 days · index 604.2 · score −417 days−12.2%30 days−11.8%90 days+4.7%
- Bull21 Oct 2024+35.3%124 days · index 446.6 · score +377 days+1.6%30 days+35.6%90 days+51.0%
- Bear22 Jun 2024−1.1%121 days · index 451.6 · score −437 days−4.0%30 days+4.6%90 days−7.3%
- Bull21 May 2024−12.0%32 days · index 513.4 · score +407 days−1.8%30 days−11.3%90 days−22.1%
- Bear3 May 2024+12.7%18 days · index 455.7 · score −357 days−3.7%30 days+8.8%90 days−1.4%
- Bull26 Oct 2023+86.4%190 days · index 244.4 · score +437 days+2.8%30 days+15.5%90 days+26.3%
- Bear18 Aug 2023+21.6%69 days · index 201.0 · score −947 days−0.2%30 days−0.8%90 days+34.4%
- Bull15 Jul 2023−15.5%34 days · index 237.8 · score +357 days−2.0%30 days−4.1%90 days−16.5%
- Bear10 May 2023+7.1%66 days · index 222.1 · score −367 days−0.2%30 days−4.3%90 days+3.6%
- Bull17 Mar 2023−2.3%54 days · index 227.3 · score +517 days−1.6%30 days+11.8%90 days−12.9%
- Bear11 Mar 2023+27.5%6 days · index 178.3 · score −487 days+24.8%30 days+35.0%90 days+19.2%
- Bull15 Jan 2023−4.8%55 days · index 187.2 · score +397 days+7.3%30 days+5.5%90 days+34.7%
- Bear5 Dec 2021−64.6%406 days · index 528.9 · score −427 days+0.1%30 days−5.2%90 days−29.5%
- Bull6 Oct 2021−4.8%60 days · index 555.8 · score +417 days+1.9%30 days+16.2%90 days−9.7%
- Bear25 Sep 2021+22.2%11 days · index 454.7 · score −417 days+12.5%30 days+38.9%90 days+18.4%
- Bull10 Aug 2021+2.0%46 days · index 445.7 · score +417 days+1.8%30 days+15.4%90 days+56.8%
- Bear22 May 2021+24.3%80 days · index 358.5 · score −487 days+1.7%30 days−16.6%90 days+41.5%
- Bull22 Nov 2020+139.0%181 days · index 150.0 · score +397 days+0.1%30 days+11.6%90 days+178.0%
- Bear22 Sep 2020+5.0%61 days · index 142.9 · score −537 days−3.8%30 days−14.8%90 days+14.9%
- Bull30 Apr 2020+19.4%145 days · index 119.6 · score +437 days+12.1%30 days+12.6%90 days+32.7%
- Bear9 Mar 2020+5.4%52 days · index 113.5 · score −657 days−38.1%30 days−8.7%90 days+19.5%
- Bull18 Jan 2020−7.9%51 days · index 123.2 · score +427 days−6.8%30 days+16.4%90 days−19.6%
- Bear23 Jul 2019−13.0%179 days · index 141.6 · score −437 days−2.4%30 days−1.9%90 days−18.5%
- Bull30 Mar 2019+81.1%115 days · index 78.2 · score +367 days+21.2%30 days+16.5%90 days+139.6%
Green means the index rose, red that it fell, whatever the flip said. Index change runs from the flip to the next flip, or to the newest candle.
How the score is calculated
Six fixed rules, published as market-v1.1.
- 1
Three parts
Bitcoin's own score, the score of an index of the 200 largest coins we score without Bitcoin (weighted by market value), and breadth, the share of those coins trending up. Each runs from −100 to +100.
- 2
Fixed weights
Bitcoin 41%, altcoins 24%, breadth 35%. The score is their weighted average, rounded. Without Bitcoin or breadth on a candle there is no score.
- 3
The band word follows the score
The label is read straight off the number:
Strong bearBearNeutralBullStrong bull−100−60−20+20+60+100 - 4
The trend needs confirmation
On daily candles the trend turns bullish after two closes in a row at +35 or above, and bearish after two at −35 or below. In between it stays as it was, so a Neutral score can sit inside a bull or a bear trend.
- 5
Closed candles only
Nothing is scored until the candle closes. Weekly and monthly candles are built from the daily ones.
- 6
Versioned, never edited
These rules are published as market-v1.1. A rule change gets a new version and its own history. market-v1.0 had a fourth part, the stablecoins' share; it was dropped on 3 Oct 2026 because it moved almost only with prices, a second, reversed vote on the price trend.