On daily candles, the whole market is strongly bullish, in a bull trend since 21 Aug 2026.
One number from −100 to +100 for the whole crypto market: Bitcoin, the altcoins, and how many coins are trending up, blended by fixed, published rules.
- Bull trend since 21 Aug 2026, 46 days ago
- Market index +11.1% since that flip
Trend score and market index
Daily candles. Index on top, score below, on the same dates.
- Bull trend
- Bear trend
- Flip
- Two closes in a row past ±35 flip the trend
The index follows the combined market value of the 200 largest coins we score; it is a level, not dollars. Daily scores start on 24 Jul 2018, when breadth was first counted.
What makes up the score
The newest daily candle, 5 Oct 2026, part by part.
- Bitcoin's trend score+40.4Score +98 · weight 41%Bitcoin's own score on the same candle.
- Altcoins' trend score+23.5Score +100 · weight 24%The score of an index of the 200 largest coins we score without Bitcoin, weighted by market value.
- Breadth+25.8Score +73 · weight 35%How many of the counted coins are trending up: +100 if all are, −100 if none are.
- Trend score+90
| Part | Score | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin's trend scoreBitcoin's own score on the same candle. | +98 | 41% | +40.4 |
| Altcoins' trend scoreThe score of an index of the 200 largest coins we score without Bitcoin, weighted by market value. | +100 | 24% | +23.5 |
| BreadthHow many of the counted coins are trending up: +100 if all are, −100 if none are. | +73 | 35% | +25.8 |
| Trend score | +90 |
Breadth behind the score
On 5 Oct 2026, 94% of the 196 coins counted were in a bull trend and 79% closed above their base line, which makes the breadth part +73.
Breadth part = twice the average of the two shares, minus 100. It is 0 when the average is 50%, +100 when every coin is in a bull trend and above its base line, −100 when none is.
Every flip on daily candles
Since 24 Jul 2018.
- 29flips since 24 Jul 2018
- 42%of daily candles in a bull trend
- 55 daystypical bull trend (median) · longest 190 days
- 66 daystypical bear trend (median) · longest 406 days
What the market index did after the flips
| Days after the flip | After a turn to Bull | After a turn to Bear |
|---|---|---|
| 7 days later | +1.6%median of 15 flips · range −1.6% to +5.8% | −0.2%median of 14 flips · range −3.8% to +1.7% |
| 30 days later | +11.8%median of 15 flips · range +5.2% to +16.2% | −4.3%median of 14 flips · range −11.8% to +8.8% |
| 90 days later | +18.2%median of 14 flips · range −12.9% to +51.0% | +4.7%median of 14 flips · range −7.3% to +19.5% |
- 7 days laterBull+1.6%Bear−0.2%
- 30 days laterBull+11.8%Bear−4.3%
- 90 days laterBull+18.2%Bear+4.7%
Change of the index from the close of the flip candle. The range holds the median of flips like these at least 9 times in 10 (with fewer than 6 flips it is the lowest to the highest result). Flips are few and bunch up in time: read them as a record, not a forecast.
| The flip | The trend that followed | Index after the flip | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Turned to | Index | Score | Lasted | Index change | 7 days | 30 days | 90 days |
| 21 Aug 2026Now | Bull | 459.6 | +52 | 45 days so far | +11.1% so far | −1.0% | +5.2% | not yet |
| 16 Oct 2025 | Bear | 672.6 | −54 | 309 days | −31.7% | +1.1% | −12.9% | −12.2% |
| 12 Jul 2025 | Bull | 686.6 | +40 | 96 days | −2.0% | +5.8% | +7.9% | +0.4% |
| 23 Jun 2025 | Bear | 604.2 | −44 | 19 days | +13.6% | +2.1% | +20.6% | +23.6% |
| 11 May 2025 | Bull | 624.1 | +45 | 43 days | −3.2% | +1.1% | +4.1% | +18.2% |
| 22 Feb 2025 | Bear | 604.2 | −41 | 78 days | +3.3% | −12.2% | −11.8% | +4.7% |
| 21 Oct 2024 | Bull | 446.6 | +37 | 124 days | +35.3% | +1.6% | +35.6% | +51.0% |
| 22 Jun 2024 | Bear | 451.6 | −43 | 121 days | −1.1% | −4.0% | +4.6% | −7.3% |
| 21 May 2024 | Bull | 513.4 | +40 | 32 days | −12.0% | −1.8% | −11.3% | −22.1% |
| 3 May 2024 | Bear | 455.7 | −35 | 18 days | +12.7% | −3.7% | +8.8% | −1.4% |
| 26 Oct 2023 | Bull | 244.4 | +43 | 190 days | +86.4% | +2.8% | +15.5% | +26.3% |
| 18 Aug 2023 | Bear | 201.0 | −94 | 69 days | +21.6% | −0.2% | −0.8% | +34.4% |
- Bull21 Aug 2026Now+11.1%45 days so far · index 459.6 · score +527 days−1.0%30 days+5.2%90 daysnot yet
- Bear16 Oct 2025−31.7%309 days · index 672.6 · score −547 days+1.1%30 days−12.9%90 days−12.2%
- Bull12 Jul 2025−2.0%96 days · index 686.6 · score +407 days+5.8%30 days+7.9%90 days+0.4%
- Bear23 Jun 2025+13.6%19 days · index 604.2 · score −447 days+2.1%30 days+20.6%90 days+23.6%
- Bull11 May 2025−3.2%43 days · index 624.1 · score +457 days+1.1%30 days+4.1%90 days+18.2%
- Bear22 Feb 2025+3.3%78 days · index 604.2 · score −417 days−12.2%30 days−11.8%90 days+4.7%
- Bull21 Oct 2024+35.3%124 days · index 446.6 · score +377 days+1.6%30 days+35.6%90 days+51.0%
- Bear22 Jun 2024−1.1%121 days · index 451.6 · score −437 days−4.0%30 days+4.6%90 days−7.3%
- Bull21 May 2024−12.0%32 days · index 513.4 · score +407 days−1.8%30 days−11.3%90 days−22.1%
- Bear3 May 2024+12.7%18 days · index 455.7 · score −357 days−3.7%30 days+8.8%90 days−1.4%
- Bull26 Oct 2023+86.4%190 days · index 244.4 · score +437 days+2.8%30 days+15.5%90 days+26.3%
- Bear18 Aug 2023+21.6%69 days · index 201.0 · score −947 days−0.2%30 days−0.8%90 days+34.4%
Green means the index rose, red that it fell, whatever the flip said. Index change runs from the flip to the next flip, or to the newest candle.
How the score is calculated
Six fixed rules, published as market-v1.1.
- 1
Three parts
Bitcoin's own score, the score of an index of the 200 largest coins we score without Bitcoin (weighted by market value), and breadth, the share of those coins trending up. Each runs from −100 to +100.
- 2
Fixed weights
Bitcoin 41%, altcoins 24%, breadth 35%. The score is their weighted average, rounded. Without Bitcoin or breadth on a candle there is no score.
- 3
The band word follows the score
The label is read straight off the number:
Strong bearBearNeutralBullStrong bull−100−60−20+20+60+100 - 4
The trend needs confirmation
On daily candles the trend turns bullish after two closes in a row at +35 or above, and bearish after two at −35 or below. In between it stays as it was, so a Neutral score can sit inside a bull or a bear trend.
- 5
Closed candles only
Nothing is scored until the candle closes. Weekly and monthly candles are built from the daily ones.
- 6
Versioned, never edited
These rules are published as market-v1.1. A rule change gets a new version and its own history. market-v1.0 had a fourth part, the stablecoins' share; it was dropped on 3 Oct 2026 because it moved almost only with prices, a second, reversed vote on the price trend.